The Mellman Group poll shows Bell has the momentum in the closely watched contest
With less than two weeks until the primary election, DMFI PAC today released a recently completed poll showing Wesley Bell has moved into a 6-point, 48% to 42%, lead over Congresswoman Cori Bush. A previous poll released by DMFI PAC in June showed Bell with a tiny 1-point lead.
“As voters hear from the candidates, Democrats in Missouri’s 1st District are increasingly disillusioned with Bush and attracted to Bell,” said DMFI PAC Chairman Mark Mellman. “In just the last month, Congresswoman Bush saw a 12-point increase in the number of voters who say she does not get things done for her district and an 8-point increase in those who do not think she’s honest or ethical.
“Meanwhile, a large majority of voters (60%) view Wesley Bell favorably, a 17-point advantage over Rep. Bush.”
The findings are gleaned from a survey of 400 voters in Missouri’s 1st Congressional District representing the likely August 2024 Democratic primary electorate. The survey used a registration-based sample, with interviews conducted via landline, cell, and text-to-online from July 21-24, 2024. The margin of error for the sample as a whole is +/- 4.9% at the 95% level of confidence (higher for subgroups).
Key highlights from the poll:
- With early voting underway, Bell is the only one of the four candidates gaining ground, increasing his vote from 29% in January to 43% last month to 48% today.
- Bush remains mired at the same 42% she held in June and garners less support today than she did in January (45%).
- Bell increased his vote share across all major demographic groups including gender, education, and race. Bell also gained both inside and outside the city of St. Louis.
- Bush’s job ratings weakened significantly since June, flipping from net positive to net negative (53% positive to 43% negative). The congresswoman suffered a net shift of 14 points to the negative in one month.
For more detailed poll results and analysis, please click here.
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